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Is Day Zero REAL or Just a Threat?

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It would give me the greatest pleasure to be right on this one…..

We are now hearing on an hourly basis about Day Zero with some predicting that we are going to hit Day Zero in SEVEN days time – 17 June 2022.

BUT – when I look at our last WORSE Year for total Dam Levels – 2021 – I find some comfort as the numbers from that year DO NOT SUPPORT that hypothesis from this year.

If one looks at 2021’s closing numbers and compares them to 2022’s closing numbers then the following pattern emerges:

Most significantly:

  1. In July 2021 we had our lowest closing levels of 10.36%
  2. The 2022 figures from May 2022 onward show our dams fuller than in the corresponding months of 2021
  3. IF we do not have good rains in August 2021 then the downward trend we are currently on will still leave the dam levels above 2021’s worst and lowest total levels.
  4. Then we just need to hold out for September/October rains to come and save us.

The comparative figures are below Bobby:

Dam Level Comparison 2021 v 2022

NB: Junes closing figures are as at 10 June 2022. Should the dam levels continue to drop at 0.04% per day with no inflows then we will close out June 2022 on 11.42%. The drop in dam levels has thus far this month been hovering on an average of 0.014% per day.

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Alan Straton

Chief Cook, Bottle Washer and Broom Mechanic at MyPE
Passionate about Port Elizabeth and definitely NOT packing for Perth. Alan's ethos is epitomised in the words of Nelson Mandela; "I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the idea of a democratic and free society. If need be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die." See more articles by Alan.