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Why The Coronavirus Infection Numbers DON’T Make Sense

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Check my numbers: Based on a South African population of 57.7 Million and a death-rate of 0.3695% we COULD be seeing 213 202 deaths in South Africa

Many Memes are making the rounds comparing death rates from the Flu, AIDS etc. to COVID-19 – read this article carefully for another more sobering perspective.

Based on the numbers reported in these memes most people are beginning to doubt that COVID-19 is a ‘problem’. BUT if we compare the 77 000 deaths per year from AIDS to the 213 202 ESTIMATED potential deaths (my ESTIMATED figures as laid out below) from COVID-19 then we could be facing a bigger problem if we do not apply lessons learned from HIV.

What we forget is that in order to report properly on the Coronavirus pandemic we all need the following fact front and centre: How many tests have been done?

Let’s consider the ratios in terms of Number of Tests vs Infections vs Deaths:

  • On 20 March 2020 it was reported that 6 438 Coronavirus tests had been conducted in South Africa with a total of 202 infections.
  • By 28 March 2020 over 35 000 Coronavirus tests had been processed in South Africa with a total of 1 187 infections.
  • On 28 March the Eastern Cape had only conducted 77 Coronavirus Tests – 12 of which were positive.
  • By 31 March 41 072 Coronavirus tests had been processed in South Africa with a total of 1 353 infections.

Let’s have a look at the percentage ratio of these KNOWN figures of infection to number of tests:

  • 20 March: 3.1376%
  • 28 March: 3.3914%
  • 31 March: 3.2942%
  • 1 April: 5 Deaths to 1353 Infections ratio of 0.3695% (remember this number) *
  • The average percentage of infections to tests is currently: 3.2744%
  • The Outlier is the Eastern Cape’s figures of 12 positive from 77 tests which gives a ratio of 15.5844%

What we all need to consider is that the tests will have been done on the basis of a SUSPECTED infection – no-one who presents as fit and healthy and has not come into contact with someone already diagnosed or from a prohibited area will seek testing.

So here we need to make the assumptions that the actual infection rate percentage could be MUCH lower if EVERYONE in the world was tested regardless of their medical, travel and contact history.

So, for Shits and Giggles let’s say that IF everyone in South Africa was tested that the infection ratio would drop from our proven average of 3.2744% to 1.0%.

NOW let’s bring the numbers closer to our home in the Eastern Cape:

  • The 2018 mid-year Census data showed that the province has a population of 6 562 053
  • At an infection rate of 3.2744% we get a number of infections at 214 867
  • At an ASSUMED infection rate of 1.0% we get a number of infections at 65 620

BUT – we need to remember that it is still early days for Coronavirus when we compare it to AIDS.

  • South Africa’s first AIDS cases were diagnosed in 1983.
  • 35 years later in 2018 there were 7.7 Million South Africans living with HIV and 71 000 AIDS related deaths. The 2018 estimated mid-year SA Population was 57.7 Million meaning that 13.34% of our population had AIDS.
  • In South Africa more than 10 Million people test for HIV each year.

SO it may seem fair to compare the Coronavirus to HIV or the Common Flu or Cancer but we forget that we are at the start of this pandemic.

* Based on a South African population of 57.7 Million and a death-rate of 0.3695% we COULD be seeing 213 202 deaths in South Africa from Coronavirus – considerably less than from AIDS one would agree BUT statisticians will argue that the numbers are moving targets and cumulative so the best guess is beyond my Pay Grade – sorry!

Sources:

EDITOR:

It is a media tactic to focus on shock, gasp and horror as that sells newspapers and gains eyeballs. Considered, non sensationalist reporting DOES NOT sell and IS NOT read.

So what happens is that the media become complicit in many things – one of which is NOT being entirely truthful to readers or viewers around the COVID-19 pandemic by ‘gently’ leading the reader to a knee jerk scared reaction.

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Alan Straton

Chief Cook, Bottle Washer and Broom Mechanic at MyPE
Passionate about Port Elizabeth and definitely NOT packing for Perth. Alan's ethos is epitomised in the words of Nelson Mandela; "I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the idea of a democratic and free society. If need be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die." See more articles by Alan.