MyPE

Community Business Directory, Event Listings, News and Views from Gqeberha, Nelson Mandela Bay

The Coronavirus Numbers Continue to NOT Make Sense

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So far EACH SA COVID-19 death has ‘cost’ the SA Economy R16 Billion

As at 10 April 2020 South Africa had:

  • 2003 COVID-19 Cases
  • 24 Deaths
  • All dead are over the age of 40
  • 73 028 coronavirus infection tests completed

Various estimates put the loss to the South African economy at:

  • R24 Billion per day
  • 370 000 job losses (conservative estimate)

Against the above numbers and in the solidarity fund kitty of around R5 Billion we have enough money to take care of 5 hours of the expected economic loss for ONE day only.

Over 35 days of lockdown we can assume a loss of R840 Billion to our economy due to the lockdown.

16 Days ino the lockdown we have had 24 deaths and an assumed loss of R384 Billion to the SA economy.

Assume that you are an accountant, ONLY looking at the above figures, so that means that EACH DEATH has cost the economy R16 Billion – let’s say that again SIXTEEN BILLION RAND per death so far.

Never in the history of the world has a single death (of an ordinary citizen) ever cost the collective world so much money.

South Africa needs to drastically step up the rate of testing in order to convince the general population of the continued need for a lockdown.

Other numbers to ‘confuse’ you:

  • SA’s total population is estimated at around 57 Million.
  • The current rate of deaths to COVID-19 tests is at 0.32%
  • Giving a (terribly rough) estimate of 182 400 deaths
  • Which would equate to a ‘death value’ per citizen of R4.6 Million each over the course of the 35 day lockdown.

Obviously the death rate wil be far lower as most people being tested now are those presenting with symptoms. Temper that with the low infection rate in Africa plus the number of world wide deaths so far at just over 95 000 and you will see that the (present) expected number of deaths is far lower than my 182 400 estimate. WHICH will make the cost to our economy per death much, much higher.

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Alan Straton

Chief Cook, Bottle Washer and Broom Mechanic at MyPE
Passionate about Port Elizabeth and definitely NOT packing for Perth. Alan's ethos is epitomised in the words of Nelson Mandela; "I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the idea of a democratic and free society. If need be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die." See more articles by Alan.