Let’s Predict the 2011 Rugby World Cup Winners

The 2011 Rugby World Cup is played between 20 nations who, in the last 24 years of the Rugby World Cup, have played 448 matches against each other.

Based on the historical win rates of each of the countries taking part in past Rugby World Cups then we will see the following results at the conclusion of proceedings in New Zealand this year:

1. South Africa: 87.50%
2. New Zealand: 85.00%
3. Australia: 80.00%
4. France: 72.00%
5. England: 71.00%
6. Scotland: 59.00%
7. Ireland: 52.00%
8. Argentina: 48.00%
9. Fiji: 45.00%
10. Samoa: 45.00%
11. Wales: 44.00%
12. Italy: 35.00%
13. Canada: 28.00%
14. Romania: 25.00%
15. Tonga: 24.00%
16. Georgia: 13.00%
17. USA: 12.00%
18. Japan: 5.00%
19. Namibia: 0.00%
20. Russia: 0.00%

BUT, if we base our projections on the countries with the highest points score per individual in the tournament then the 2011 Rugby World Cup results will be as follows:

1. England: 249 – Johnny Wilkinson
2. Scotland: 227 – Gavin Hastings
3. Australia: 195 – Michael Lynagh
4. New Zealand: 170 – Grant Fox
5. Argentina: 135 – Gonzalo Quesda
6. Fiji: 125 – Nicky Little
7. France: 124 – Thierry Lacroix
8. Canada: 120 – Gareth Rees
9. South Africa: 111 – Percy Montgomery
10. Wales: 98 – Neil Jenkins
11. Italy: 98 – Diego Dominguez
12. USA: 77 – Mike Hercus
13. Ireland: 70 – David Humphreys
14. Samoa: 62 – Silau Laega
15. Tonga: 61 – Pierre Hola
16. Japan: 40 – Toru Kurihara
17. Georgia: 35 – Merab Kvirikashvili
18. Romania: 25 – Petre Mitu
19. Namibia: 22 – Lean van Dyk
20. Russia: 0 – Debut Tournament

Now rugby wouldn’t be half as entertaining if we did not have prolific try scorers so, to be fair we need to ask ourselves what the results could look like if we based our projection on the highest number of tries scored per individual in past tournaments:

1. New Zealand: 15 – Jonah Lomu
2. Australia: 11 – Chris Latham
3. England: 11 – Rory Underwood
4. Samoa: 10 – Brian Lima
5. Scotland: 9 – Gavin Hastings
6. South Africa: 8 – Bryan Habana
7. France: 8 – Christopher Dominici
8. Wales: 7 – leuan Evans
9. Ireland: 6 – Brian O’ Driscoll
10. Italy: 5 – Mathew Cuttia
11. Argentina: 4 – Pablo Bouza
12. Fiji: 4 – Vilame Satala
13. Canada: 4 – Morgan Williams and Al Charron
14. Japan: 4 – Eiji Kutsuki
15. Romania: 3 – Marcus Tintu
16. USA: 3 – Roy Nelson and Kort Schubert
17. Tonga: 2 – Pierre Hola
18. Georgia: 1 – No Georgian has scored more than 1 try
19. Namibia: 1 – No Namibian has scored more than 1 try
20. Russia: 0 – Debut Tornament

And, just to confound the critics even more, let’s predict the eventual winners of the 2011 Rugby World Cup based on the above three sets of stats – we added each position above up and the team with the lowest number came first – the weighted average is in brackets below:

1. New Zealand (7)
2. Australia (8)
3. England (9)
4. Scotland (13)
5. South Africa (16)
6. France (18)
7. Argentina (24)
8. Fiji (27)
9. Samoa (28)
10. Wales (29)
11. Ireland (29)
12. Italy (33)
13. Canada (34)
14. USA (45)
15. Tonga (47)
16. Romania (47)
17. Georgia (51)
18. Japan (52)
19. Namibia (57)
20. Russia (60)

Quite a surprise to see countries like Scotland in the above prediction whose highest place was a 4th in 1991, especially if one considers that 4 countries – New Zealand, Australia, England and South Africa – share the honour of winning previous Rugby World Cup tournaments.

Of course you could also look at the above results and say that they are representative of the teams that will play the most entertaining rugby during the course of the tournament.

Tell us, in the comments section below, who you think is gonna win the 2011 Rugby World Cup AND, more importantly WHY.

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Alan Straton

Chief Cook, Bottle Washer and Broom Mechanic at MyPE

Passionate about Port Elizabeth and definitely NOT packing for Perth. Alan's ethos is epitomised in the words of Nelson Mandela; "I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the idea of a democratic and free society. If need be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die." See more articles by Alan.

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