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Wait Until the Lockdown and Then Downgrade – Sneaky

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Call for S Africans to work together in turning economy around despite Moody’s Downgrade

Government has urged all South Africans to unite, remain positive and continue to work hand-in-hand to turn the economy around.

This comes after Moody’s decision to downgrade South Africa’s long term foreign and local currency debt ratings to ‘Ba1’ from ‘Baa3’ and maintain the negative outlook.

South Africa’s credit ratings by Moody’s are now one notch below investment grade.

“It is with a heavy heart to note that all three major credit ratings agencies currently rate South Africa at sub-investment grade. However, every crisis presents an opportunity.

“The opportunity we have today is to unite and work together to address our challenges. We as a people have overcome insurmountable challenges in the past and we can still overcome. We shall rise. We have to rise. We owe it to ourselves,” Minister of Finance Tito Mboweni said in a statement on Friday evening.

The National Treasury said the negative outlook reflects the risk that economic growth will prove even weaker and the debt burden will rise even faster and further than currently expected, weakening debt affordability and potentially, access to funding.

“The decision by Moody’s could not have come at a worse time. South Africa, like many other countries, is seized with containing the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19),” the National Treasury said.

In the immediate period, South Africans under the leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa have rallied together to fight COVID-19 to ensure South Africa emerges triumphant from the pandemic.

“The President announced a number of measures to offset the COVID-19 impact on the economy and its people including a 21-day lockdown which commenced on March 27 to combat the spread of the virus,” the National Treasury said.

In relation to financial markets functioning, the South African Reserve Bank has also announced a set of interventions to stabilise financial markets and provide much-needed stability.

In addition, over the short to medium term, government remains committed to implementing structural economic reforms to address the weak economic growth, constrained fiscus and the ailing state-owned companies.

“Government is providing medium-term support to Eskom to secure energy supply and to honour the state’s contractual obligations. National Treasury, in partnership with the Department of Public Enterprises, is instituting a series of measures to stabilise finances at the various state-owned companies.

“The sustainability of government finances remains important and critical to attain and maintain, not only for credit ratings’ sake, but more importantly for the sake of South Africans,” National Treasury said.

The National Treasury said the sovereign downgrade will further add to the prevailing financial market stress.

“These two events will truly test South African financial markets. South Africa’s deep, stable financial sector and robust macroeconomic policy framework have always been flagged as a credit strength, including the South African Reserve Bank’s demonstration of a good track record in implementing credible and effective monetary policy and preserving financial stability.

“The sovereign downgrade will further see South Africa being excluded from the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) and the government bond market will experience further capital outflows as fund managers with investment grade mandates will be forced to sell South African government bonds,” the National Treasury said.

Non-residents currently hold approximately 37% (R800 billion) of the total domestic government bonds and the number is expected to substantially decline with the combined impact of COVID-19 and the downgrade.

“The interest rate for government, households and the broader economy is also expected to increase as a result. While some market participants argue that the impact of a sovereign downgrade has already been priced in, it is difficult to stipulate with certainty the extent,” the National Treasury said. – SAnews.gov.za

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Alan Straton

Chief Cook, Bottle Washer and Broom Mechanic at MyPE
Passionate about Port Elizabeth and definitely NOT packing for Perth. Alan's ethos is epitomised in the words of Nelson Mandela; "I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the idea of a democratic and free society. If need be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die." See more articles by Alan.