Local sentiment in Nelson Mandela Bay is focusing on the 'Township Economy' as one of the pillars for growth. At present much emphasis is being placed by politicians on the need to grow the 'Township Economy' as a vital means to increase jobs in the region. A report by FNB's John Loos says that the average price growth in township properties continues to outstrip the average price growth of suburban properties. Could this focus on the economies of our townships and renewed growth in pricing … [Read more...] about Has the time to invest in the Township Economy arrived?
john loos
Municipal Tariffs expected to continue above-CPI increases
John Loos writes; "It is the time when we all like to speculate heavily on the main themes that the new year is likely to hold for us, and whether or not there will be any major trend changes. At the present time, little seems to have changed early in 2016 with regards to a somewhat mediocre economic outlook for South Africa. Global commodity prices remain depressed. On the one hand, this bodes ill for South African export growth and thus for economic growth, but on the other hand it bodes … [Read more...] about Municipal Tariffs expected to continue above-CPI increases
‘Economic misery’ predicted for 2016
The year-on-year rate of change in the SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator remained firmly negative, but was slightly less negative in October compared to September, while the more volatile month-on-month rate of change was actually positive. Year-on-year, the SARB Leading Indicator declined by -4.8% in the month of October. This is a slightly less extreme decline than the revised -5.2% year-on-year decline for September, but nevertheless remains dismal. This rate of decline continues to … [Read more...] about ‘Economic misery’ predicted for 2016
Comfort from Retail Numbers
Real Retail Sales growth for October continued to record a reasonably healthy growth rate under the weak economic circumstances. From a revised 3% year-on-year growth rate for September, October's rate rose slightly to 3.3%. This remains very healthy considering a 3rd quarter real economic growth rate of nearer to 1%. Cutting out data volatility by looking at the 3-month moving average, year-on-year growth remained unchanged at 3.3% for the 3 months to October. The still-reasonable real … [Read more...] about Comfort from Retail Numbers
Residential Building and Fixed Investment remains low
As at the 2nd quarter of 2015, the SARB (Reserve Bank) reported low levels of Residential Fixed Investment relative to the size of the country's economy. At 1.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the level remained well below the 2007 high of 2.7% of GDP, a level that had been reached at the back end of South Africa's greatest residential boom on record. The completion of the 3rd quarter 2015 residential building picture, with this week's release of StatsSA Building Stats, suggests that the level … [Read more...] about Residential Building and Fixed Investment remains low
Pace of property market strengthening is not what it used to be
"Whilst they still point to a very well balanced market, FNB's Valuers don't appear overly impressed with Residential Demand growth as of late. Rather, they perceive significant supply constraints as key in maintaining market balance. However, if demand has started to weaken, it should be merely a matter of time before supply constraints are alleviated somewhat. Therefore, the results of the July FNB Valuers' Market Strength Index, which point to a recent month-on-month decline in the Demand … [Read more...] about Pace of property market strengthening is not what it used to be
Few indications of Chronic Consumer Credit Health
Consumer credit health doesn't appear bad yet, but the Household Sector remains vulnerable, and much of its financial frailty continues to be masked by low interest rates. "We're just not seeing the "chronic" consumer credit health situation that is some times reported," says John Loos, the Household and Property Sector Strategist for FNB. Frequently, one reads reports painting a dire consumer credit situation...one in which arrears and non-performing loans are spiralling "out of control". … [Read more...] about Few indications of Chronic Consumer Credit Health
Bleak near term economic outlook
The SARB (South African Reserve Bank) Leading Business Cycle Indicator continued to point to a bleak near term economic outlook, recording a year-on-year decline of -3.4% in May 2015. The indicator, often a good indicator of what economic activity growth will do in the near term, has now recorded its 20th consecutive month of year-on-year decline. Month-on-month, the May decline was an equally dismal -1.72%, although month-on-month rates of change can admittedly be volatile. The list of … [Read more...] about Bleak near term economic outlook
Little indication of rising consumer financial stress
John Loos, Household and Property Sector Strategist for FNB Home Loans says; "Some of us were rather horrified by the 2nd quarter Consumer Confidence Index reading of -15, the lowest level in this index since the 4th quarter of the year 2000, and representing a significant drop from the prior quarter's reading . The magnitude of the drop could lead some to believe that the consumer currently experiences huge financial stress, and that a "crisis" is in the making. That's not necessarily the case, … [Read more...] about Little indication of rising consumer financial stress
Disappointing economic start to 2015
The "slow puncture" of property prices decreasing to levels that better reflect a poorer economy has started, FNB property economist John Loos revealed in Cape Town on Thursday. "We've had all the structural changes, adjustments in rates and jumps in the energy market," he told media at the FNB Portside building. "And now economic growth is pedestrian." "The abnormal stimulus that kept the party going from 2008 is over," he said. "The economy is stagnating and price levels need to reflect … [Read more...] about Disappointing economic start to 2015
Repo Rate increase ‘negative in the short term’
"Today's interest rate hike puts bets on further residential market strengthening off, but will at the same time serve to keep market behaviour healthy and free of speculative behaviour," so says FNB's John Loos. The impact should be seen as "negative" from a short term consumer point of view. As the positive impact of the big interest rate cuts has been gradually wearing off through 2012/13, both real household sector disposable income growth and real consumption expenditure growth have been … [Read more...] about Repo Rate increase ‘negative in the short term’
Expected house price growth for 2014
The 4th Quarter 2013 FNB Estate Agent Survey, completed in the month of November, saw a resumption of strengthening in perceived domestic residential property activity, after the preceding quarter's reading had dipped slightly. The survey is of a sample of estate agents predominantly in SA's major metro regions. The 1st question asked to agents is with regard to their perceptions of residential market activity in their areas, a subjective question on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the … [Read more...] about Expected house price growth for 2014
Should you sell your home in 2014?
John Loos, FNB Household and Property Sector Strategist said that; "2013 saw slightly slower average house price growth than 2012, but improving demand-supply balance hints at improved average price growth to come in 2014." According to the FNB House Price Index, the average house price for the entire 2013 rose by 6.8% compared with the average price for 2012. This was a slight slowing in growth on the revised 2012 average house price growth of 7.1%. In real terms too, when adjusting house … [Read more...] about Should you sell your home in 2014?
