Diffusion of innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread. Everett Rogers, a professor of communication studies, popularized the theory in his book Diffusion of Innovations. The book was first published in 1962, and is now in its fifth edition (2003).
With successive groups of consumers adopting a new technology such as Electric Vehicles, the products market share will eventually reach saturation level.
With reference to the South African populations knowledge and willingness to adopt Electric Vehicles as a viable transport form, would YOU classify the general population of South Africa as:
- Persuaded of the benefits
- Deciding to accept or reject the concept
- Ready to find out more before buying
- Actively seeking an Electric Vehicle
The tipping point in terms of the general populace adopting Electric Vehicles as a first choice is generally agreed to be the year 2025.
By that time these companies predict:
- Volkswagen – selling 1 million EVs per year by 2025.
- Audi – one-third of all vehicles they produce electrified by 2025.
- BMW – full electric (and plugin hybrids) to account for 15-25% of their sales by 2025.
- Volvo – to have sold a total of 1 million electrified cars by 2025.
- Netherlands – ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars starting in 2025. They aim to phase out the combustion engine by 2030.
- Norway – to sell only full electric or plug-in hybrid cars by 2025.
- Volkswagen Group – aiming for 80 new EV models (BEVs and hybrids) across all lines.
- Honda – two-thirds of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2025 (Europe). For the rest of the world Honda aims for 2030. From now on all new models launched will have an electrified version.
- Indonesia – a target of 20% EV market share by 2025.
- Toyota and Lexus – every model in their ranges will have an electric option by 2025
More about Diffusion of innovations:
The key elements in diffusion research are: Element, Innovation, Adopters, Communication channels, Time and Social system.
The second element, Adopters, is the minimal unit of analysis.
The adoption process has five stages:
- Knowledge: The individual is first exposed to an innovation, but lacks information about the innovation. During this stage the individual has not yet been inspired to find out more information about the innovation.
- Persuasion: The individual is interested in the innovation and actively seeks related information/details.
- Decision: The individual takes the concept of the change and weighs the advantages/disadvantages of using the innovation and decides whether to adopt or reject the innovation. Due to the individualistic nature of this stage, Rogers notes that it is the most difficult stage on which to acquire empirical evidence.
- Implementation: The individual employs the innovation to a varying degree depending on the situation. During this stage the individual also determines the usefulness of the innovation and may search for further information about it.
- Confirmation: The individual finalizes his/her decision to continue using the innovation. This stage is both intrapersonal (may cause cognitive dissonance) and interpersonal, confirmation the group has made the right decision.
You can help the quiet revolution along by installing an EV Charging station outside your Guest House, Hotel, Coffee Shop, Restaurant, Shopping Centre or in your forecourt. Contact Straton Electrical for EV Charging Station options.
Tell MyPE your sentiments around Electric Vehicles: